Fuel prices are up — here's what South African businesses should do next

Every month, South Africa's Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources (DMPR) publishes a fuel price adjustment based on a formula that tracks global crude oil prices, the rand/dollar exchange rate, shipping costs, and a set of domestic levies. Most months, the adjustment is modest, a few cents in either direction. April 2026 was not a normal month.

On 1 April, petrol prices increased by R3.06 per litre and diesel by up to R7.51 per litre,  adjustments that sit among the largest recorded in South Africa's fuel pricing history. Understanding what drove this, and what it means operationally for businesses, is more useful than reacting to the headline number alone.

What actually drove the April increase

According to the official ministerial statement issued by Minister Gwede Mantashe on 31 March 2026, three distinct factors combined to produce the April adjustment.

1. Global crude oil prices

The average Brent Crude oil price rose from $69.08 to $93.67 per barrel during the review period, an increase of approximately 36% in a single pricing cycle. The DMPR attributed this to "continued tension between the US and Iran, which has affected crude oil supply, especially through the Strait of Hormuz." This increase in crude alone contributed R5.26 per litre to the Basic Fuel Price of petrol, and R9.49 per litre to diesel.

2. Rand depreciation

South Africa prices oil in US dollars, which means rand weakness directly increases the cost of every litre we import, regardless of what happens to the global crude price. During the review period, the rand depreciated from R16.00 to R16.64 against the dollar. While that movement may appear modest in isolation, it added 56 cents per litre to petrol, 78 cents to diesel, and 83 cents to illuminating paraffin on top of the global crude price increase.

3. Pre-scheduled budget levies

Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana's February 2026 Budget Speech included levy increases that took effect on the same date: a 9c/l increase to the Fuel Levy on petrol (8c/l for diesel), a 5–6c/l Carbon Levy increase, and a 7c/l Road Accident Fund levy increase totalling 21 cents per litre, arriving simultaneously with the global price shock.

The numbers

Source: Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources, Media Statement, 31 March 2026 (gov.za)

 It is worth noting that these figures already reflect a temporary R3/litre reduction in the general fuel levy, announced as emergency relief by National Treasury. Without this intervention, petrol would have increased by approximately R6.06/l and diesel by approximately R10.51/l. The relief applies from 1 April to 5 May 2026 only, at an estimated cost to the fiscus of around R6 billion per month.

Why the relief measure changes how businesses should plan

The levy reduction is explicitly temporary and subject to monthly review. When it expires on 5 May, the general fuel levy reverts from R1.10/l back to R4.10/l for petrol unless the government extends it. That decision will be informed by where global oil prices and the rand sit in late April.

This creates a planning problem. Businesses that model their cost base on April's assisted prices may be significantly under-prepared for what May brings. The scenarios worth modelling are simple: one where the relief is extended and one where it is not. The gap between those two scenarios is R3/l on top of any new under-recovery accumulated during April's pricing cycle.

The operational impact businesses are underestimating

The instinct when fuel prices rise is to look at the vehicle fleet. That is the wrong starting point. The deeper impact comes through three channels that are less immediately visible:

Supply chain cost pass-through. South Africa moves over 80% of its freight by road, and diesel is the primary fuel. Logistics and transport operators facing a R7.51/l increase will pass those costs forward either immediately or on contract renewal. Businesses that have not reviewed their logistics pricing agreements since the previous cycle are likely to absorb costs they did not budget for.

Supplier input cost inflation. Any supplier whose manufacturing, farming, or distribution process is diesel-dependent will experience margin pressure and will seek to recover it. For businesses operating in food, construction, retail, and manufacturing, this is not a hypothetical; it is a pricing conversation that is already underway in procurement departments across the country.

Consumer demand is softening. Illuminating paraffin increased by R11.67/l. For the estimated 2.5 million South African households that rely on paraffin for heating and cooking, this is a significant shock to disposable income. Combined with transport fare increases that follow diesel hikes, businesses serving price-sensitive consumer segments should anticipate demand-side pressure in Q2 2026.

A response framework for businesses

The broader context

South Africa's fuel price structure is particularly sensitive to external shocks for structural reasons that go beyond this specific episode. The country refines a declining proportion of its own fuel, a vulnerability that the closure of major refining capacity in recent years has deepened. Combined with the rand's historical sensitivity to global risk sentiment and a levy structure that embeds significant fixed costs into every litre, South African businesses operate in an environment where international energy market movements translate quickly and materially into domestic cost pressures.

The April 2026 adjustment is an acute instance of a chronic condition. The businesses best positioned to navigate it and the ones that follow are those that treat fuel price exposure as an operational risk to be managed continuously, not a quarterly surprise to be absorbed reactively.

If your business wants to think through its exposure, its supplier contract structure, or its pricing model in light of the current environment, we'd welcome the conversation.

Authors

• Nthato Leboli  | Managing  Director